RESEARCH: 10 billion robots by 2040: The next industrial evolution?

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In a recent interview, Brett Adcock, the CEO of Figure AI, predicted that by 2040, there could be around 10 billion robots in the world, which would undoubtedly impact the global labor market. As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to permeate our world, such predictions are not merely speculative.

During 2024 alone, the AI robotics market will increase by 30% annually to $19 billion. This trend is expected to continue, with the market projected to exceed $35 billion by 2030. Such growth, adding nearly 20% in market value annually, highlights the fast integration of robotics and AI into various industries. Major companies like Tesla, Amazon, and Nvidia are at the forefront of this technological revolution, bringing robotics closer to the average consumer than ever before. In e-commerce, for example, Amazon and Shopify are automating warehouse tasks with intelligent machines. Smart speakers and other Internet of Things (IoT) devices in our homes increasingly rely on AI to manage everything from playing music to organizing our daily schedules.

A notable milestone in this evolution was OpenAI’s creation of ChatGPT in 2022, which catalyzed a closer association between AI and robotics. For instance, Figure AI has partnered with OpenAI to develop next-generation models for humanoid robots, using Microsoft’s Azure cloud services for AI infrastructure. The collaboration begins a new era where robotics and AI are seamlessly integrated.

Although still in its infancy, the market for humanoid robots is showing immense potential. Analysts at Goldman Sachs project that by 2035, the market could reach $38 billion, with more than 250,000 units shipped as early as 2030.

Among the companies at the forefront of this race is Figure AI, which was founded in 2022. The company has been focused on deploying its robots in industries affected by severe labor shortages, such as manufacturing, transportation, logistics, and retail. It also has significant backing from investors such as Jeff Bezos, Nvidia, and Microsoft.

Besides, we can find Tesla with its robot Optimus. According to Elon Musk, the company will have thousands of these robots in the future, potentially lifting its market cap to $25 trillion.

In the latest World Robot Conference in China, 27 humanoid robots were debuted, a testament to the country’s rapid investment in this technology. In fact, over the past decade, total investment in China’s robotics industry has exceeded 100 billion yuan, highlighting the global race to dominate this landscape.

With continued advancements and substantial investments, the robotics revolution appears unstoppable. As we move closer to a world where robots are as ubiquitous as smartphones, the implications for labor, industry, and society at large will be profound. However, despite the optimism, challenges remain. At least one of the most important questions concerns the development of commercially viable robots that can autonomously operate in complex environments, prioritizing tasks in real time.


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